The terrorist threat to Europe

epa11916720 Police officers secure the scene of a knife attack at Place du Marche in Mulhouse, northeastern France, 22 February 2025, where one person was killed and several others injured. A suspect was arrested and taken into custody. France's national anti-terror prosecutors unit (PNAT) is investigating the incident, which French President Macron condemned as an 'Islamist terror act.' EPA/JEAN-FRANCOIS FREY FRANCE OUT

Chapter

The

terrorist

threat

Europe

Focus

2026

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One person was killed and seven wounded in a knife attack in Mulhouse, France on 22 February 2025. The French president condemned the attack, calling it an ‘Islamist act of terrorism’. Image: Jean-Francois Frey / EPA / NTB

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Although attack-related activity against the West by militant Islamists has increased considerably since 2023, executed attacks have mostly been of a simpler nature, and the prevention rate has been high. The most powerful al-Qaeda and Islamic State affiliates are now found in Africa, where both organisations aim to establish a caliphate. The terrorist threat from right-wing extremists stems mainly from lone actors linked to communities that focus on violence rather than ideology.

Terrorist threat to the West persists
In the past two years, attack-related activity against the West by militant Islamists has increased sharply. The terrorist threat from militant Islamist groups mainly stems from the Islamic State (IS), either via inspired or directed attacks. IS’s Afghanistan affiliate (ISKP) and IS Somalia pose the greatest threat in terms of providing attack direction.

Over the past decade, the IS threat to Europe has taken on a different character. Today, the number of averted attacks is high, and the ones carried out are mainly conducted by IS-inspired lone actors using simple means.

Towards a new caliphate
The most powerful affiliates of al-Qaeda (AQ) and IS, both militarily and financially speaking, are now located in Africa. Several communities on the continent are marked by deep, local lines of conflict and an absent state apparatus. Both organisations exploit this by absorbing or forming alliances with local militant groups.

Both IS and AQ have an overarching goal of establishing a caliphate ruled according to their ideology. Both seek to position themselves as rivals to the national authorities. In particular, IS’s West Africa Province (ISWAP) in Nigeria and the AQ affiliates al Shabaab and JNIM in Somalia and Mali respectively have made significant territorial gains. The progress in Africa has been vital in order to maintain a global foothold. The groups pose a considerable threat in their own core areas, including against Western interests.

Should IS and AQ succeed in establishing a caliphate, this could inspire Western sympathisers to join them; an increase in European foreign fighters would further exacerbate the threat to Norway and the West. European foreign fighters have used their contacts and language skills to incite and direct terrorist attacks in Europe in the past.

Terrorist groups on the rise in conflict areas

Conflict and political instability provide fertile ground for terrorist groups. The Islamic State (IS) and al-Qaeda (AQ) are set on expanding in such conflict areas, where living standards are poor and the authorities are either wholly or partially absent.

Both organisations are re-building systematically, expanding their affiliates in Africa and Asia while bolstering their finances, military capabilities and ability to carry out terrorist attacks.

This aerial view shows Malian trucks waiting to cross the border between Ivory Coast and Mali in the village of Nigoun, near Tengrela on October 31, 2025. In northern Ivory Coast, truck drivers prepare to head back to neighbouring Mali, aboard their tanker trucks loaded with fuel and anxiety. One acronym strikes fear into the hearts of all the truck drivers: JNIM, the name of the jihadist group affiliated with Al-Qaeda that decreed two months ago that no more tanker trucks would be allowed to enter Mali from a neighboring country.
Since then, hundreds of trucks have been set ablaze, selling fuel from Abidjan or Dakar, and are part of JNIM’s economic jihad strategy, which aims, among other things, to strangle Bamako and the ruling military junta.
In 2023, more than half of the petroleum products exported by Côte d’Ivoire were destined for Mali. Malian trucks load up in Yamoussoukro or Abidjan before crossing one of two corridors into the country: the Tengréla corridor or the Pogo corridor, where military escorts take over on the Malian side, all the way to Bamako. An escort can consist of several hundred tankers.
But even under escort, convoys are frequently targeted. The most dangerous areas in southern Mali are the Kadiana-Kolondiéba and Loulouni-Sikasso axes. (Photo by Issouf SANOGO / AFP)

A convoy of Malian lorries in Côte d’Ivoire are waiting to cross the border, carrying fuel back to Bamako, the capital of Mali, on 31 October 2025. The convoys are escorted by military vehicles in order to protect them from attacks by the Malian al-Qaeda affiliate JNIM, which has stated that no more tank lorries will be allowed into Mali. Image: Issouf SANOGO / AFP / NTB

Persistent terrorist threat from right-wing extremists
In 2025, there was a slight increase in right-wing extremist attack activity in the West, and the activity is expected to stay at a comparable level in 2026. The terrorist threat from right-wing extremists stems mainly from lone actors linked to transnational online groups and networks. In these communities, ideology is less central than before, with discussion increasingly dominated by intensely violent content. This particularly applies to groups with a younger membership demographic. However, the lack of established right-wing terrorist organisations limits their ability to plan, finance and coordinate complex attacks.

It is likely that actors linked to the Russian state are active in digital right-wing extremist networks, and that they may both contribute to radicalisation and help right-wing extremists become better equipped to carry out attacks. The focus on violence combined with the involvement of state-affiliated actors could heighten the right-wing extremist threat in the longer term.