Focus 2026

Contents

1. About Focus

   The Norwegian Intelligence Service’s annual report Focus is one of three Norwegian threat and risk assessments published during the first quarter of each year. The other two are published by the Norwegian Police Security Service (PST) and the Norwegian National Security Authority (NSM).

   • THE NORWEGIAN INTELLIGENCE SERVICE (NIS) is Norway’s foreign intelligence service. Although subordinate to the Norwegian Chief of Defence, NIS does not concern itself exclusively with military matters. The main tasks of NIS are to warn of external threats to Norway and high-priority Norwegian interests, to support the Norwegian Armed Forces and the defence alliances Norway is part of, and to assist in political decision-making processes by providing information of significance to Norwegian foreign, security and defence policy. In the annual threat assessment Focus, NIS presents its analysis of the current situation and expected developments in geographic and thematic areas considered particularly relevant to Norwegian security and national interests.
      
   • THE NORWEGIAN POLICE SECURITY SERVICE (PST) is Norway’s domestic security service, subordinate to the Norwegian Minister of Justice and Public Security. PST is responsible for preventing and investigating crimes that threaten national security. It is the task of the service to identify and assess threats relating to intelligence, sabotage, the spreading of weapons of mass destruction, terrorism and extremism. The assessments are meant to assist policy formulation and support political decision-making processes. PST’s annual threat assessment is a part of the service’s public outreach, explaining the expected development in the threat environment.
      
   • THE NORWEGIAN NATIONAL SECURITY AUTHORITY (NSM) is Norway’s agency for national preventive security. The agency’s mission is to strengthen Norway’s ability to counter espionage, sabotage, terrorism and hybrid threats. NSM helps organisations protect civilian and military information, systems, objects and infrastructure that are relevant to national security by giving advice and performing control activities, supervision, security testing and security research. In order to protect digital infrastructure, NSM operates a national warning system for critical infrastructure (VDI) and coordinates national efforts to handle serious cyberoperations. Risiko, NSM’s annual risk assessment, aims to help Norwegian enterprises manage security risks by providing information about vulnerabilities, threats and security measures.
2. Introduction

   

   The most recent editions of Focus have made for successively gloomier reading, and this year’s edition is no exception. Global security is more strained now than it was at the start of 2025. Great powers are openly pursuing their own interests for rapid gain. We are seeing the return of spheres of influence and a form of politics in which might makes right. International cooperation and institutions are being undermined. The same dynamic is evident in the Arctic. Much of the foundation for Norwegian security is being challenged, and we must accept that the world order as we have known it is crumbling.

   For Beijing and Moscow, this is a welcome development. Both see an opportunity for ushering in a new world order, and they are cooperating closely. A more self-confident Chinese regime will take advantage of its own economic power and supply chain dominance as well as a community of authoritarian states in order to expand its global influence.

   A full-scale war continues to rage in Europe, and the suffering in Ukraine is staggering. The Ukrainians are fighting exceptionally well, yet Russia is slowly gaining ground, albeit at a high price. The outcome of the war will affect Russia’s belief in military might as an instrument of power, and will have long-term consequences for Norwegian security. Going forward, the course of the war will be determined by the Russian economy and Ukrainian resilience, and we are in a position to influence both factors. Russia’s economy is performing extremely poorly, in part due to sanctions, and Western military and economic support to Ukraine remain crucial to the Ukrainians’ defensive struggle.

   New technology is revolutionising warfare and, as a result, how we have to think about defence. In Ukraine, the use of drones has fundamentally altered the battlefield. In Russia, a larger military and new strategic weapons are intended to offer Moscow escalation options against NATO. We must acknowledge the fact that Russia is gearing up for a lasting confrontation in which Norway is counted among Moscow’s enemies.

   We should not underestimate the threat from international terrorism. Over the past two years, there has been an increase in attack-related activity by militant Islamists against the West. At the same time, a large proportion of attacks are being averted. 

   The Norwegian Intelligence Service’s main task is to warn against threats to Norway and Norwegian interests. The changes we describe in Focus 2026 are not transient. Norway’s security depends on an understanding of this changing threat environment, both among the general public and among decisionmakers. This builds resilience. Focus is our contribution to an informed public debate.
   
   
   Nils Andreas Stensønes
   Vice Admiral
   Director Norwegian Intelligence Service

   Editing concluded on 23 January 2026